Bitcoin Halvings Are Bull Market Things — Will This Time Be Different?


In this bear market, top cryptocurrencies are down more than 70%, dramatic bankruptcies have left millions out of pocket, and bitcoin miner capitulation looks more likely by the day.

How brutal was the last boom-and-bust cycle?

In order to model how long each bull and bear market lasted, Blockworks analyzed bitcoin price data dating back to 2010 – when bitcoin (BTC) was worth a fraction of a dollar.

As of Feb. 3, 2022, the current bear market has lasted 335 days. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 55% since then, to a low of $15,550.

Bitcoin tanked from $10,250 to a local bottom of below $3,200 over the previous big bear, a 390-day stretch between Feb. 21, 2018 and Mar. 18, 2019.

We mapped existing definitions of the start of a bear market from traditional finance. Thus, a bear market begins when an asset trades 20% below its recent high for more than two months.

In this (basic) exercise, a bull market starts when an asset trades 20% above its recent low for one month or more.

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